The Minnesota Lynx enter the rapids of the postseason with a modicum of reassurance, if not genuine momentum, after shredding the Indiana Fever for just their second win in six games Thursday night at Target Center.
For the first time in more than a month (mostly due to an 18-day break in WNBA action for the FIBA tournament) the Lynx fused the dedicated scrap and flair that have charmed basketball die-hards and casuals alike, capping their regular season with a league-best 33-11 record. Their defensive pressure on the perimeter put cataracts on court vision to deny meaningful passes; their diligence and anticipation closed the gaps that the creative feints and dribbles of the Fever’s dynamic backcourt of Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell commonly exploit. The potent duo missed 20 of 24 shots and combined for just two free throws and four assists before being mercifully removed from the game with the Lynx up by more than 30 midway through the third quarter.
On offense, even without rookie phenom Olivia Miles (taking a second precautionary game off due to a tight calf muscle) the Lynx tied a season high with 28 assists. Patience was paramount: Instead of jacking up shots or barging into coverage after a dribbling survey showed no teammates open, ball-handlers made the simple, incremental pass to budge the defense into rotation, then kept it up until a cutter (usually center Natasha Howard, who shot 9-for-11) squirted free or the catch-and-shoot was a prudent instead of a petulant decision.
The stabilizing competence at both ends of the court in their regular season finale was sorely needed, because as luck would have it, the Lynx first-round playoff opponent is arguably the worst matchup they could have drawn.
Yes, the New York Liberty finished with the league’s eighth-best record and thus the lowest seed in the postseason. But this season’s standings were remarkably bifurcated, then bunched. With a record of 26-18, the Liberty were closer in the win-loss column to the Lynx (seven games back), than to the ninth-place Portland Fire, who finished nine games behind them.
More significantly, the Liberty have as much talent and postseason experience as anyone in the W. They’re one of only two teams to win their regular season series against the Lynx this season, taking two out of three games (as did the Atlanta Dream).
Their frontcourt tandem of Breanna Stewart (6-foot-4) and Jonquel Jones (6-foot-6) is massive and skilled, simultaneously play rugged and with finesse, and have 14 All-Star appearances between them. Shooting guard Sabrina Ionescu is a trifle overrated as a former top overall pick and notorious sharpshooter who hasn’t made more than a third of her three-pointers for three straight seasons. But Ionescu is a feisty, emotionally infectious competitor and a four-time All Star who doesn’t shirk from big moments.
This much-feted trio were all around two years ago when the Liberty beat the Lynx in a controversial WNBA Final (an appropriate ruling of a Stewart travel would have flipped the result). There are reasons to think (and for veteran Liberty players to tell themselves) that New York is capable of winning their second ring in three years this season. More than halfway through the season they were just a game over .500 at 13-12, still acclimating to new coach Chris DeMarco and rookie point guard Pauline Astier and missing small forward Leonie Fiebich, who really is a sharpshooter, having made 42.5% of her 332 three-pointers over her three-year WNBA career in New York.
The Liberty were 14-7 with Fiebich in the lineup and 13-6 to close out the season. But perhaps the biggest lift they received down the stretch was Stewart’s dominant performance in the FIBA tournament for Team USA. With perennial MVP A’ja Wilson (who will win her fifth such award this season) out for rest and recuperation, “Stewie” reminded everyone of her clutch leadership when it matters most, frequently rescuing her team when it was under adversity and being named the obvious FIBA MVP.
As mentioned earlier, the Liberty are also a tough matchup for the Lynx, whose tallest starter is Howard at 6-foot-2. Both Jones and Stewart demand attention down in the paint, but with Fiebich, Ionescu, and another streaky flamethrower from long distance, Marine Johannes, coming off the bench, New York can space the floor, spread out the defense, and exacerbate their size advantage. Oh, and by the way, both Stewart and Jones can also step out and hit midranges and even threes.
That’s why the Lynx had their worst defensive rating against the Liberty, who scored 115.4 points per 100 possessions in their three games, way above their overall mark of 103.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. And on offense, the Lynx scored just 106.2 points per 100 possessions against the Liberty, compared to 112.1 points overall.
In other words, this will be a tough series, made even more fraught and dramatic by the fact that it is a best two-out-of-three. So if the Lynx lose either on Sunday at home or in New York on Tuesday, it’s suddenly a win or be eliminated situation.
OK, enough with the doomsday. The Lynx are the ones with the league’s best record. They feature a couple of current All-Star starters in Howard and point guard Olivia Miles. Their copious playoff experience includes Howard (who has three rings, including two with the Seattle Storm after getting one in 2017 as a young bench player for the Lynx), Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and, oh yeah, Napheesa Collier, the MVP runner-up in 2024 and 2025 (ahead of Stewart both years) and steadily returning to prime form after returning from injuries in mid-season.
So, how do they reverse their regular-season woes versus the Liberty and move on to the second round?
Take Some of the Offensive Load off Olivia Miles
While the rookie has been fantastic enough to likely finish second or third in this season’s MVP voting, the Liberty have dampened her sparkle and effectiveness more than any other opponent. Miles's shooting splits are 32% from the field and 28.6% from three-point range.
In their three meetings, her rookie counterpart, Astier, has been a persistently effective pest, hovering and thrusting and emphasizing contact that walks the line between a foul and acceptable physicality. As with everyone who guards Miles on the perimeter, she can’t completely contain Liv’s superb handle and stop-and-go rhythms, but has sapped enough time and energy to put Miles at a disadvantage when confronting superb and savvy rim protectors like Stewie and Jones—plus the giant Han Xu off the bench, who is an inch below 7 feet! They too don’t mind risking fouls on Miles—Liv shot 26 free throws in their three games—to further wear her down.
In Particular, Lean Into Phee and McBride
Phee concedes she still isn’t at the level of her two previous seasons, specifically mentioning that ankle surgeries continue to cost her the twitch-quickness that enacts her instinctual and sage court movements in appropriate fashion. Even so, Phee remains regally talented enough to draw inordinate attention with the ball in her hands. Miles will understandably yield some of the playmaking onus if Phee parlays her smart interior passing, classic spin fadeaways, and newfound three-point accuracy into a more diversified Lynx attack that let’s Miles feast with less stress during her own opportunities.
As for McBride, when she’s on, the Lynx are a problem for opposing defenses. One of the more remarkable stats to explain her team’s success this season is that in the Lynx’s 33 victories this season, McBride has shot 43.9% from long range. In their 11 losses, the three-point percentage is 32.9%.
After the Lynx beat the Fever Thursday night, I asked coach Cheryl Reeve if there had been a common root to her team’s defensive lapses this season. “Yeah, when we don’t make as many shots our defense is really bad,” she replied. And to double-down on something that might seem counterintuitive, she added, “The stretch [in which] I was complaining about our defense, we were winning because we were making shots.”
Missed shots create transition opportunities, putting more pressure on and reducing the margin of error for the defense. Made shots let the defense get set and play with the confidence of a recent point cushion. All this is especially true of made and missed three-pointers, which count more when they go in and foster the long rebounds that stimulate transition. McBride, aka “McBuckets,” is the barometer of this phenomenon.
Phee also can have a tremendous impact in improving the Lynx defensive performance because she is the best matchup on Stewart, the head of the snake for the Liberty offense; because her instincts on when and where to help are superb, both in rotation and going rogue; and because she too has become a pretty deadly three-point shooter.
Shorten the Bench While Increasing Time for Nia Brodie (née Coffey)
In a best-of three games series against such a formidable opponent, Reeve can’t afford to lean on unreliable performers. This very much includes Dorka Juhász, who at 6-foot-5 is the tallest player on the team but lacks the skill set, foot speed, and aggression to be an effective foil against the Liberty’s huge front line.
That puts even more weight on Howard to avoid foul trouble, but even her remarkable grit requires an ally in combat down in the paint. And that is why Brodie’s minutes should comprise the bulk of the playing time off the bench, with the perimeter defense of Maya Caldwell worthy of inclusion, ending the rotation at seven players unless injuries or foul trouble say otherwise.
Prediction: Lynx in 2 or 3
Before McBride got back on track Thursday night, the outcome of this series felt more uncertain. Yes, Stewie and Jones are formidable and will likely both elevate their play, unless the slight ankle tweak Jones suffered in their final regular season game is more serious than the Liberty are letting on.
But listening to Miles talk with humility about her inexperience in the playoffs, and hearing both Howard and McBride go into detail about the difficulty of postseason success, it feels like this team is prepared for adversity. And with Reeve as coach, they are prepared every other way as well.
“You have to find joy in how hard it is,” McBride said she told Miles. The joy on this team is not ready to be over just yet.
